Belinda Bencic @ Peyton Stearns Recap
Roland-Garros (W) · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Peyton Stearns LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Peyton Stearns at 32% against FanDuel's implied 29% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.4pp · closed at 3.48 (28.7%)
Solid 2.8% edge at FanDuel (3.40).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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