Katerina Siniakova @ Simona Waltert Recap
Roland-Garros (W) · May 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Katerina Siniakova WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Katerina Siniakova at 64% against FanDuel's implied 59% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -4.4pp · closed at 1.47 (68.0%)
Solid 4.4% edge at FanDuel (1.69).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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