Maria Lourdes Carle @ Rebecca Sramkova Recap
Roland-Garros (W) · May 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Rebecca Sramkova WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Rebecca Sramkova at 80% against FanDuel's implied 77% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Rebecca Sramkova
-333 on FanDuel
Model
80%
Market
77%
Edge
+2.8 pts
Solid 2.8% edge at FanDuel (1.30). Best is 1.44 at Betfair.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
79.7%
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