New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Recap
NFL · October 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New England Patriots LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New England Patriots at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.9pp · closed at 2.43 (41.1%)
Solid 7.3% edge at FanDuel (2.34).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on New England Patriots picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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