Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers Recap
NFL · October 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Washington Commanders LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Commanders at 25% against FanDuel's implied 23% — an edge of +18.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +16.5pp · closed at 3.97 (25.2%)
Model gives 41.7% vs FanDuel's implied 23.3%. Elo gap of -187 backs it.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Washington Commanders picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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