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Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos Recap

NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Denver Broncos WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Denver Broncos at 51% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.3pp  ·  closed at 1.94 (51.5%)

Small Play
Denver Broncos
-104 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 51%
Edge +2.8 pts

Solid 2.8% edge at FanDuel (1.96).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
61.2% —
+ Season record + form
58.5% -2.7pp
Calibration offset
54.4% -4.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
52.0% -2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7% -1.3pp

Model performance on Denver Broncos picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
11
W - L
7 - 4
Win rate
64%
Avg CLV
+5.9pt
ROI
-15.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.