Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Recap
NFL · September 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Denver Broncos LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Denver Broncos at 48% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +17.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +17.3pp · closed at 2.10 (47.6%)
Model gives 64.9% vs FanDuel's implied 47.2%. Elo gap of +125 backs it.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Denver Broncos picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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