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San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Recap

NFL · September 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — San Francisco 49ers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco 49ers at 37% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.8pp  ·  closed at 2.71 (36.9%)

Small Play Dog play
San Francisco 49ers
+176 on FanDuel
Model 37%
Market 36%
Edge +7.5 pts

Solid 7.5% edge at FanDuel (2.76).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
42.1% —
+ Season record + form
46.1% +4.0pp
+ Factors (QB / weather / rest / trends)
45.5% -0.6pp
Platt rescale
39.9% -5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.3% -4.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.6% +1.3pp

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