Chiefs @ Bills Recap
NFL · April 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Bills — VOID.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Bills at 56% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Bills
-106 on FanDuel
Model
56%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.7 pts
Solid 2.7% edge at FanDuel (1.94). Elo agrees (+141 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
75.5%
—
+ Season record + form
77.2%
+1.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
76.0%
-1.2pp
Platt rescale
56.0%
-20.1pp
Final model probability
56.0%
—
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