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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · October 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Milwaukee Brewers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.6pp  ·  closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+134 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 43%
Edge +4.7 pts

Solid 4.7% edge at FanDuel (2.34). Elo agrees (-43 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
40.5% —
+ Season record + form
44.5% +4.0pp
Calibration offset
45.8% +1.3pp
Platt rescale
39.9% -5.9pp
Final model probability
42.5% +2.6pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
12 - 5
Win rate
71%
Avg CLV
+4.4pt
ROI
+55.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.