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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · October 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Milwaukee Brewers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.1pp  ·  closed at 2.54 (39.4%)

Pass Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+146 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 41%
Edge +5.9 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
40.7% —
+ Season record + form
44.6% +3.9pp
Calibration offset
45.6% +1.0pp
Platt rescale
39.0% -6.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.9% +0.9pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
12 - 5
Win rate
71%
Avg CLV
+4.4pt
ROI
+55.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.