San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap
MLB · October 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 37% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.4pp · closed at 2.77 (36.1%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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