Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · September 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.2pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)
Solid 4.2% edge at FanDuel (2.22). Elo agrees (+32 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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