Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.8pp · closed at 2.36 (42.4%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 2.6pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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