Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · September 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Miami Marlins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 41% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.7pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)
Solid 6.0% edge at FanDuel (2.36). Elo agrees (-42 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.