New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · August 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — New York Mets WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.8pp · closed at 2.63 (38.0%)
New York Mets
Model
39%
Market
40%
Edge
+4.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
42.4%
—
+ Season record + form
39.7%
-2.7pp
Calibration offset
42.3%
+2.6pp
Platt rescale
36.1%
-6.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.2%
+3.1pp
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