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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Recap

MLB · August 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Milwaukee Brewers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 49% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.2pp  ·  closed at 1.93 (51.8%)

Small Play Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+110 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 48%
Edge +4.4 pts

Solid 4.4% edge at FanDuel (2.10).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.6%
+ Season record + form
51.7% +2.1pp
Platt rescale
43.5% -8.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.4% +5.8pp
Final model probability
49.4% -0.1pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
29
W - L
12 - 17
Win rate
41%
Avg CLV
+2.6pt
ROI
+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.