San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap
MLB · August 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 41% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.1pp · closed at 2.42 (41.3%)
San Diego Padres
Model
41%
Market
39%
Edge
+6.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.6%
—
Calibration offset
44.9%
+1.3pp
Platt rescale
38.7%
-6.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.6%
-1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.6%
+3.0pp
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