Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 37% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 2.99 (33.4%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
37%
Market
37%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.3%
—
+ Season record + form
37.3%
-2.0pp
Calibration offset
40.5%
+3.2pp
Platt rescale
34.9%
-5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.0%
-0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.9%
+2.9pp
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