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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 37% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp  ·  closed at 2.99 (33.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+172 on FanDuel
Model 37%
Market 37%
Edge +4.0 pts

Solid 4.0% edge at FanDuel (2.72). Elo agrees (-99 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
39.3%
+ Season record + form
37.3% -2.0pp
Calibration offset
40.5% +3.2pp
Platt rescale
34.9% -5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.0% -0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.9% +2.9pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
26
W - L
10 - 16
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+3.9pt
ROI
-17.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.