Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · August 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.8pp · closed at 2.37 (42.2%)

Small Play Dog play

Detroit Tigers

Model 39%

Market 39%

Edge +5.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

43.7% —

+ Season record + form

41.5% -2.2pp

Calibration offset

43.5% +2.0pp

Platt rescale

37.2% -6.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

36.4% -0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

38.8% +2.4pp

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