Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · August 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.68 (37.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 38%

Market 37%

Edge +4.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

41.9% —

+ Season record + form

43.1% +1.2pp

Calibration offset

44.6% +1.5pp

Platt rescale

38.1% -6.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

34.6% -3.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

37.7% +3.1pp

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