Houston Astros @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · August 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.9pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
Houston Astros
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.4%
—
+ Season record + form
50.1%
+2.7pp
Platt rescale
41.4%
-8.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.6%
+5.2pp
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