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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · August 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — New York Yankees WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Yankees at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.1pp  ·  closed at 2.31 (43.3%)

Pass Dog play
New York Yankees
Model 47%
Market 47%
Edge +4.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
52.3% —
Calibration offset
51.5% -0.8pp
Platt rescale
43.4% -8.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.2% +3.8pp

Model performance on New York Yankees picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
10
W - L
3 - 5
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+3.7pt
ROI
+1.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.