Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +4.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.0pp · closed at 1.99 (50.2%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
47%
Market
47%
Edge
+4.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.5%
—
+ Season record + form
50.0%
-0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.9%
-8.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.7%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.0%
+4.3pp
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