Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Philadelphia Phillies WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 52% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.2pp · closed at 1.87 (53.5%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
52%
Market
51%
Edge
+5.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
60.7%
—
+ Season record + form
62.5%
+1.8pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
61.9%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
58.9%
-3.0pp
Platt rescale
47.8%
-11.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
52.2%
+4.4pp
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