Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Detroit Tigers WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.0pp · closed at 2.62 (38.2%)
Detroit Tigers
Model
39%
Market
40%
Edge
+5.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.6%
—
+ Season record + form
41.8%
-2.8pp
Calibration offset
43.7%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
37.5%
-6.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.7%
-0.8pp
Final model probability
38.7%
+2.0pp
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