Houston Astros @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 43% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
Houston Astros
Model
43%
Market
42%
Edge
+7.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.0%
+2.6pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-9.0pp
Final model probability
42.8%
+0.8pp
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