Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves Recap

MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 32% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 3.09 (32.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Colorado Rockies

Model 32%

Market 33%

Edge +4.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

34.6% —

+ Season record + form

33.1% -1.5pp

Calibration offset

37.4% +4.2pp

Platt rescale

32.3% -5.1pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

30.8% -1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

32.2% +1.4pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

7 - 14

Win rate

33%

Avg CLV

+5.2pt

ROI

+4.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.