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Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves Recap

MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 32% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp  ·  closed at 3.09 (32.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+205 on FanDuel
Model 32%
Market 33%
Edge +4.6 pts

Solid 4.6% edge at FanDuel (3.05). Elo agrees (-87 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
34.6%
+ Season record + form
33.1% -1.5pp
Calibration offset
37.4% +4.2pp
Platt rescale
32.3% -5.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
30.8% -1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
32.2% +1.4pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
8 - 25
Win rate
24%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
-47.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.