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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.3pp  ·  closed at 1.97 (50.8%)

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
+110 on FanDuel
Model 50%
Market 48%
Edge +5.4 pts

Solid 5.4% edge at FanDuel (2.10).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
53.1%
+ Season record + form
50.1% -3.0pp
Platt rescale
42.1% -8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.0% +1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9% +5.9pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
6 - 12
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+3.5pt
ROI
-46.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.