Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 50% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.3pp · closed at 1.97 (50.8%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
50%
Market
48%
Edge
+5.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.1%
—
+ Season record + form
50.1%
-3.0pp
Platt rescale
42.1%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.0%
+1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.9%
+5.9pp
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