Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Recap
MLB · August 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Boston Red Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 43% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.26 (44.2%)
Boston Red Sox
+145 on FanDuel
Model
43%
Market
41%
Edge
+6.7 pts
Solid 6.7% edge at FanDuel (2.45).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.3%
—
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.1pp
Platt rescale
41.2%
-7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.0%
-2.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.0%
+4.0pp
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