Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics Recap
MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 52% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.0pp · closed at 1.93 (51.8%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
52%
Market
52%
Edge
+3.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
54.9%
—
+ Season record + form
56.2%
+1.4pp
Calibration offset
54.6%
-1.6pp
Platt rescale
46.5%
-8.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.7%
+5.2pp
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