Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 34% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp · closed at 2.91 (34.4%)

Small Play Dog play

Texas Rangers

Model 34%

Market 33%

Edge +7.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

39.6% —

+ Season record + form

38.9% -0.7pp

Calibration offset

41.2% +2.3pp

Platt rescale

35.7% -5.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

34.9% -0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

34.1% -0.8pp

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