Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 44% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.3pp · closed at 2.29 (43.7%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
44%
Market
43%
Edge
+7.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.5%
—
+ Season record + form
50.9%
-0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.4%
-9.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.2%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
+1.6pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.