Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 38% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +7.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 2.64 (37.9%)
Detroit Tigers
Model
38%
Market
37%
Edge
+7.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.6%
—
+ Season record + form
42.6%
-3.0pp
Calibration offset
44.1%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
38.0%
-6.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.2%
-0.8pp
Final model probability
38.1%
+0.9pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.