Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Recap
MLB · August 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Boston Red Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Red Sox at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.36 (42.4%)
Boston Red Sox
+138 on FanDuel
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+5.3 pts
Solid 5.3% edge at FanDuel (2.38).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.2%
—
Platt rescale
41.7%
-7.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.5%
-2.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.2%
+2.7pp
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