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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · August 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.4pp  ·  closed at 1.85 (54.0%)

Small Play
Arizona Diamondbacks
-106 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 52%
Edge +2.9 pts

Solid 2.9% edge at FanDuel (1.94).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.0%
+ Season record + form
54.2% +4.2pp
Calibration offset
53.1% -1.1pp
Platt rescale
45.1% -8.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.9% +5.8pp

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
17
W - L
10 - 7
Win rate
59%
Avg CLV
+4.2pt
ROI
+70.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.