Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · August 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.4pp · closed at 1.85 (54.0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
51%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.0%
—
+ Season record + form
54.2%
+4.2pp
Calibration offset
53.1%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
45.1%
-8.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.9%
+5.8pp
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