Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · August 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.8pp · closed at 2.72 (36.8%)

Pass Dog play

New York Mets

Model 35%

Market 36%

Edge +7.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

45.7% —

+ Season record + form

41.8% -3.9pp

Calibration offset

43.3% +1.5pp

Platt rescale

37.1% -6.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

36.3% -0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

34.6% -1.7pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.