Houston Astros @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · August 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 40% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.2pp · closed at 2.42 (41.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Houston Astros

Model 40%

Market 40%

Edge +6.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

45.1% —

+ Season record + form

44.3% -0.8pp

Calibration offset

45.4% +1.1pp

Platt rescale

38.8% -6.6pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

39.6% +0.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

40.0% +0.4pp

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