Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · August 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.8pp · closed at 2.09 (47.9%)
Texas Rangers
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.3%
—
+ Season record + form
48.6%
-0.7pp
Platt rescale
41.8%
-6.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.4%
+5.6pp
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