Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · August 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
49%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.1%
—
+ Season record + form
52.9%
+2.8pp
Calibration offset
52.1%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
44.2%
-7.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.4%
+5.2pp
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