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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves Recap

MLB · August 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Atlanta Braves WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.4pp  ·  closed at 2.09 (47.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Atlanta Braves
+110 on FanDuel
Model 46%
Market 48%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (2.10). Elo agrees (-51 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
46.2%
Calibration offset
47.2% +1.0pp
Platt rescale
40.8% -6.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.6% +0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.3% +4.7pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
41
W - L
18 - 23
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-25.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.