Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · August 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.3pp · closed at 2.41 (41.5%)

Small Play Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 41%

Market 41%

Edge +5.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

44.4% —

+ Season record + form

45.0% +0.6pp

Calibration offset

46.0% +1.0pp

Platt rescale

39.8% -6.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.8% -1.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

41.4% +2.6pp

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