Lakeshore Edge Sign in

Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · August 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 41% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.0pp  ·  closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+155 on FanDuel
Model 41%
Market 39%
Edge +4.7 pts

Solid 4.7% edge at FanDuel (2.55). Elo agrees (-62 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.6%
+ Season record + form
42.8% -1.8pp
Calibration offset
44.3% +1.5pp
Platt rescale
39.0% -5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.8% -2.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.0% +4.2pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
26
W - L
10 - 16
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+3.9pt
ROI
-17.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.