Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 41% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.0pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
41%
Market
39%
Edge
+4.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.6%
—
+ Season record + form
42.8%
-1.8pp
Calibration offset
44.3%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
39.0%
-5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.8%
-2.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.0%
+4.2pp
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