Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · August 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 61% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
61%
Market
51%
Edge
+2.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.3%
—
+ Season record + form
54.0%
+0.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
54.7%
+0.7pp
Calibration offset
53.6%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
46.6%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.3%
-1.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
60.9%
+15.6pp
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