Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · August 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 39% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +6.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
39%
Market
37%
Edge
+6.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.2%
—
+ Season record + form
43.5%
-1.7pp
Calibration offset
44.7%
+1.2pp
Platt rescale
38.8%
-5.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.8%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.9%
+2.1pp
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