Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · August 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Francisco Giants WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco Giants at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp · closed at 2.55 (39.2%)
San Francisco Giants
Model
39%
Market
40%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.0%
—
+ Season record + form
48.8%
-3.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
48.2%
-0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.2%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.0%
-4.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.0%
+2.0pp
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