Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · August 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 46% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.6pp · closed at 2.07 (48.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Baltimore Orioles

Model 46%

Market 46%

Edge +4.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

48.9% —

Platt rescale

42.4% -6.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

42.9% +0.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

46.3% +3.4pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.