New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · August 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 50% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.5pp · closed at 1.94 (51.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
50%
Market
45%
Edge
+6.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.4%
—
+ Season record + form
53.8%
+1.4pp
Calibration offset
52.8%
-1.0pp
Platt rescale
45.7%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.2%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.0%
+5.8pp
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