Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · August 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.4pp · closed at 2.24 (44.6%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.2%
—
+ Season record + form
44.9%
+0.7pp
Calibration offset
45.7%
+0.8pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-3.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.2%
-0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.5%
+0.3pp
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