Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · August 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 47% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.9pp · closed at 2.16 (46.3%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
47%
Market
47%
Edge
+3.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.6%
—
+ Season record + form
48.5%
-4.1pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-6.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.7%
+4.7pp
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